Archive for May, 2009

Some IPL Analysis

Before you continue:
* Yes, I couldn’t wait.
* No, I am not workless.
* I know that I have gone terribly wrong somewhere, so please do point out mistakes.
* It’s not for all teams.

All analysis below is taking into account that no matches will be washed out and probability of each team winning a match is 0.5

=== For RR 2 be in semis(0.25 + 0.28125 + 0.015625 = 0.546875): === Ye ye, it’s greater than 50% :)
Either of following should happen:

a.) RR wins 2 matches (Probability : 0.5*0.5 = 0.25)

b.) RR wins 1 match (Probability: 0.5*0.5*2*0.5625 = 0.28125)
* Mumbai is out
* Delhi is in
* Chennai is in (RunRate of Chennai > Runrate of RR)
* If RR has to go in, then from Bangalore, Punjab and Hyd, 2 teams should be out.

Either of following should happen (0.25 + 0.125 + 0.125 + 0.0625 = 0.5625)
* prob = 0.5^2 = 0.25
* Hyderabad wins both +2
Or
* prob = 0.5^3 = 0.125
* Hyderabad wins agains punjab and loses from bangi +2
* Bangi should lose from Delhi +1
Or
* prob = 0.5^3 = 0.125
* Hyderabad wins against bangi and loses against punjab +2
* Punjab should lose from Chennai +1
Or
* prob = 0.5^4 = 0.0625
* Hyd loses both +2
* Bangi should lose against Delhi +1
* Punjab should lose against Chennai +1

c.) RR loses both (Probability: 0.25*(0.5^4) = 0.015625)
* Bangi should lose both +2
* Punjab should lose both +2

=== For Delhi to be in Semis (1 – 0.01171875 = 0.98828125) ===
* ~~For delhi to win one match(why did I calculate this?)~~
~~Probability =>  3*0.5*0.5*0.5 + 3*0.5*0.5*0.5 + 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 7*0.125 = 0.875~~

* For Delhi not to be in semis :  (probability = 0.125*(0.03125 + 0.03125 + 0.03125) = 0.01171875
* Assuming delhi would always lose at run rate.
* Delhi should lose all matches +3 = 0.5*0.5*0.5 (or 1 – 0.875) = 0.125
* And either of following

(Semis: RR, Chennai, Bangi, Punjab) (0.5^5 = 0.03125)
* RR should win both +1
* Hyderabad should lose both matches  +2
* Bangalore should win both +0
* Punjab Should win both +1
* Chennai should win 1 (against kolkata) +1
Or

(Semis: RR, Hyd, Chennai, Bangi) (0.5^5 = 0.03125)
* Hyd  wins against punjab and loses against Bangalore +2
* Punjab loses both +1
* Bangalore wins both +0
* RR wins both +1
* Chennai wins both +1
Or

(Semis: RR, Hyd, Chennai, Punjab) (0.5^5 = 0.03125)
* RR wins both +1
* Hyd loses against punjab and wins against Bangalore +2
* Punjab wins both +1
* Chennai wins against kolkata +1

* So, if Delhi doesn’t go to semis somehow, then RR and chennai are surely in :D

=== For Mumbai to be in Semis: (Probability: 0.25*0.25*0.25*0.5 = 0.0078125) ===
* Rajasthan should lose both matches (0.25)
* Bangalore should lose both matches (0.25)
* Punjab should lose both matches (0.25)
* Mumbai should win a match against DareDevils (0.5)
And you know what, this is possible as Rajasthan/Bangalore/Punjab have no matches left against each other.

=== For Kolkata to be in Semis ===
:)

== Rest later :)

References: http://iplt20.com/

Why don’t I want to forget you, when I know it was the easiest thing for you to do ?

Why do I have to think about you all the time, when I know it would be the last thing on your mind ?

Why don’t I just let it go when I know that it’s all over, and we both(?) just didn’t want it ?

All those beautiful memories, why do I have to let them go, inspite of the fact that they can make me happy anytime of the day ?

Why can’t I just talk to you, whenever I need to ?

Huh!