Some IPL Analysis
Before you continue:
* Yes, I couldn’t wait.
* No, I am not workless.
* I know that I have gone terribly wrong somewhere, so please do point out mistakes.
* It’s not for all teams.
All analysis below is taking into account that no matches will be washed out and probability of each team winning a match is 0.5
=== For RR 2 be in semis(0.25 + 0.28125 + 0.015625 = 0.546875): === Ye ye, it’s greater than 50% :)
Either of following should happen:
a.) RR wins 2 matches (Probability : 0.5*0.5 = 0.25)
b.) RR wins 1 match (Probability: 0.5*0.5*2*0.5625 = 0.28125)
* Mumbai is out
* Delhi is in
* Chennai is in (RunRate of Chennai > Runrate of RR)
* If RR has to go in, then from Bangalore, Punjab and Hyd, 2 teams should be out.
Either of following should happen (0.25 + 0.125 + 0.125 + 0.0625 = 0.5625)
* prob = 0.5^2 = 0.25
* Hyderabad wins both +2
Or
* prob = 0.5^3 = 0.125
* Hyderabad wins agains punjab and loses from bangi +2
* Bangi should lose from Delhi +1
Or
* prob = 0.5^3 = 0.125
* Hyderabad wins against bangi and loses against punjab +2
* Punjab should lose from Chennai +1
Or
* prob = 0.5^4 = 0.0625
* Hyd loses both +2
* Bangi should lose against Delhi +1
* Punjab should lose against Chennai +1
c.) RR loses both (Probability: 0.25*(0.5^4) = 0.015625)
* Bangi should lose both +2
* Punjab should lose both +2
=== For Delhi to be in Semis (1 – 0.01171875 = 0.98828125) ===
* ~~For delhi to win one match(why did I calculate this?)~~
~~Probability => 3*0.5*0.5*0.5 + 3*0.5*0.5*0.5 + 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 7*0.125 = 0.875~~
* For Delhi not to be in semis : (probability = 0.125*(0.03125 + 0.03125 + 0.03125) = 0.01171875
* Assuming delhi would always lose at run rate.
* Delhi should lose all matches +3 = 0.5*0.5*0.5 (or 1 – 0.875) = 0.125
* And either of following
(Semis: RR, Chennai, Bangi, Punjab) (0.5^5 = 0.03125)
* RR should win both +1
* Hyderabad should lose both matches +2
* Bangalore should win both +0
* Punjab Should win both +1
* Chennai should win 1 (against kolkata) +1
Or
(Semis: RR, Hyd, Chennai, Bangi) (0.5^5 = 0.03125)
* Hyd wins against punjab and loses against Bangalore +2
* Punjab loses both +1
* Bangalore wins both +0
* RR wins both +1
* Chennai wins both +1
Or
(Semis: RR, Hyd, Chennai, Punjab) (0.5^5 = 0.03125)
* RR wins both +1
* Hyd loses against punjab and wins against Bangalore +2
* Punjab wins both +1
* Chennai wins against kolkata +1
* So, if Delhi doesn’t go to semis somehow, then RR and chennai are surely in :D
=== For Mumbai to be in Semis: (Probability: 0.25*0.25*0.25*0.5 = 0.0078125) ===
* Rajasthan should lose both matches (0.25)
* Bangalore should lose both matches (0.25)
* Punjab should lose both matches (0.25)
* Mumbai should win a match against DareDevils (0.5)
And you know what, this is possible as Rajasthan/Bangalore/Punjab have no matches left against each other.
=== For Kolkata to be in Semis ===
:)
== Rest later :)
References: http://iplt20.com/